Archive for Thursday, August 14, 2008
The bad beat
August 14, 2008
Most fantasy football owners used to be able to go into the draft knowing a couple of things. The first being the new guy in the league was going to draft a team that looked like it was drafted by the kid in your first-grade class who used to eat paste and smell his thumb a lot.
The second thing owners could count on was the fact that their first two picks were going to be running backs. However, this year is one of the sparsest seasons at the running back position in recent memory.
The NFL has become a pass-happy league, with seven of the top 10 quarterbacks racking up more than 500 attempts. Drew Brees attempted 652 passes, which is 79 more passes than Philip Rivers has thrown in two seasons as a starting quarterback.
On top of the spike in passing, widespread time-shares (I'm looking at you Marion Barber, Willie Parker and Maurice Jones-Drew) at the running back position have taken away the value of spending a high draft pick on almost anyone whose name doesn't start with a "La" and end in a "Dainian."
Another issue is after LT, questions abound at the running back position and it gets thin pretty quickly. Adrian Peterson is great, but there are valid injury concerns and defenses will key on him because his quarterback makes questionable decisions when under duress.
Bryan Westbrook, Stephen Jackson, Clinton Portis, Ronnie Brown, Brandon Jacobs, Frank Gore and Laurence Maroney also have been injury prone.
Michael Turner and Darren McFadden are unproven and they play for horrible teams.
Not to mention Shaun Alexander, Ahman Green and Deuce McCallister who, like Col. Kurtz on "Apocalypse Now," have gone up river and lost whatever it was that made them great.
Many of the players listed have upside, but what excites you about players is not always as important as what should scare you about them.
The combination of more passing and time-shares means that taking two running backs with your first two picks, at least this season, doesn't make sense. Now, this of course depends on whether the new guy, or anyone else, takes a kicker and a defense with their first two picks.
It also depends on league scoring and the number of teams in your league.
So, if your league does a snake draft, wherein the owner with the last pick of the first round gets the first pick of the second round and so on, teams with the top picks should target running backs, but look to take either a quarterback or a wide receiver at the end of the second round.
Teams with late first round picks should target quarterbacks in the first round and a running back or wide receiver in the beginning of the second round.
Players to consider in the first two rounds - in no particular order - include: LaDainian Tomlinson, Tom Brady, Joseph Addai, Terrell Owens, Randy Moss, Adrian Peterson, Braylon Edwards, Tony Romo, Ben Roethlisberger, Reggie Wayne, Drew Brees, Bryan Westbrook, Marshawn Lynch and Andre Johnson.
No receivers other than Moss or Owens should be drafted in the first round.
It's important to go into the draft with a plan because a good first two rounds won't always win your league for you, but a bad first two rounds almost certainly will lose it.
Advertisement
Top ads RSS
- HOUSEKEEPING If your willing to work hard and want to ...
- Medical Assistant program… Stretch your dollar and get quality education ...
- Now Hiring Nights! Secure location, paid training. Jackson Hewitt Tax ...
- LPN – RN Evening shift Full time No Weekends Sign-On ...
- DIRECT MARKETING ACCOUNT EXECUTIVE The World Company, a fast-paced, multi-media ...


Post a comment
Requires free EudoraNews.com registration. Register or log in below.
Read our full policy. Also, read about banned accounts and harassing comments.
Post a blog entry
You have to be logged in to blog on EudoraNews.com. Please log in or sign up.
Learn more about blogging on EudoraNews.com.